The Temporary Protection Directive: From temporary protection to long-term solutions

At the EMN Estonia National Conference, the future of the Temporary Protection Directive was discussed, with a focus on policy development, integration and employment for beneficiaries of temporary protection . Several Member Countries highlighted good practices and the role of the diaspora in promoting long-term strategies. Two weeks later, on 13 June, the Council of the European Union gave its unanimous support to extending the directive until 4 March 2027. A final decision is expected shortly.

The conference “Beyond Temporary:” took place on 28 May 2025, bringing together decision-makers, experts and other stakeholders from both the national and EU levels with the aim of finding long-term solutions for those under temporary protection.

The Temporary Protection Directive has served as an effective tool for offering temporary protection to displaced persons, following the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, the extensions highlight the need to transition from emergency measures to more long-term solutions.

Insights from the academic community

Several speakers highlighted the historical context and the challenges associated with a transition to long-term protection. Dr Meltem Ineli Ciger, Associate Professor of International Law at Suleyman Demirel University and Martin Wagner, Senior Researcher at the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD), presented concrete proposals to contribute to the EU’s future strategies in this area – ranging from amendments to the Directive regarding third-country nationals who are long-term residents to various models for the development of temporary protection at the EU and national levels. It was indicated that if the Temporary Protection Directive were to be extended further to March 2027, it would have been in force for five years. This runs counter to its temporary nature and raises important questions regarding the integration of individuals, as well as the credibility of the authorities from a legal perspective.

The European Commission’s recommendation: A coordinated but flexible transition

Elena Gobbetti from the European Commission's DG Home Asylum Unit believes that an extension of the directive must be accompanied by a clear exit strategy. The Commission views the transition to national residence permits as an option and encourages Member States to consider this possibility.

She emphasises the importance of a coordinated – but not necessarily harmonised – strategy, given that the situation varies across Member States. Gobbetti also highlights the need to protect vulnerable people and ensure reliable data on displaced persons.

Decline in the number of decisions

Marja Lahtinen from the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) presents current trends regarding temporary protection, based on data from Eurostat, the EUAA and the International Organization for Migration (IOM). The number of decisions on temporary protection has fallen from 1 million in 2022 to 750,000 in 2024. Germany and Poland accounted for the largest number of decisions.

She also mentions demographic changes among Ukrainian migrants, with an increased proportion of men and a high level of education.

Examples from Member States and Norway

Poland, Estonia and Latvia were highlighted as good examples of countries that allow people with temporary protection to apply for other forms of residence permits without leaving the country.

Norway presents its collective protection system, which differs from the Temporary Protection Directive. The large influx of displaced persons in 2022 and 2023 led to policy changes to manage the influx more effectively.

Extension to 2027

On 13 June, the Council of the European Union gave its unanimous support to extending the directive until 4 March 2027. A final decision is expected shortly.